If History Repeats Itself

Obamacare (ACA) seems to divide our populations into three “camps”… FOR… AGAINST… DON’T KNOW/DON’T CARE

Medicare is now approaching its 50 year mark.. so .. looking at where Medicare started and where we are today.. may give us a idea of what Obamacare could be.

———————————————1966                                          2013

US Population                                          200 Million                              320 Million

Medicare Population                          ~ 20 Million                               30 -50 Million

Consumer Price Index                          1.00                                             $7.50

Medicare Part A Ded                           $40                                                $1216

Medicare Part B Prem                           $ 3/month                             $104.90

Medicare Part B Ded                              $50                                            $147.00

In 1996 the $3 monthly premium was suppose to pay for 50% of the Part B expenditures

In 2013 the $104.90 monthly premium is paying 25% of the part B expenditures.

So we are talking about similar percents of the population to be covered under either program.

If you consider that the Part B premiums now pay for only 25% of expeditures/pt instead of the original 50% of expenditures/pt… adjusted for inflation.. the premium has increased 9 times over and above cost of living.  Given the fact that the cost of medical care has been above inflation.. one could presume to see a increase of two – three times.. BUT 9 TIMES ?

Congress has allowed the Part B deductible to not keep with the cost of living.. to be about 40% of what it would have been/should have been $375  vs $147.00

It was estimated back in 1966 that of the 20 million Seniors .. 50% were uninsured and 50% were under insured.. not that far from the population that Obamacare is targeting.

How the cost of Obamacare evolves… will be interesting to see if it tracks that of the costs of Medicare over the decades

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